{
  "name": "Ceasar Prediction Ledger",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "created_utc": "2025-08-12T05:27:43Z",
  "updated_utc": "2025-08-12T05:27:43Z",
  "authors": [
    "Ceasar Montez"
  ],
  "description": "Pre-registered, falsifiable forecasts produced by Ceasar models (Ceasar1/Ceasar7). Designed for public verification and scoring.",
  "schema_version": "1",
  "scoring": {
    "rules": [
      "brier",
      "log_score"
    ],
    "evaluation_windows": [
      {
        "id": "near_term",
        "horizon_days": 30
      },
      {
        "id": "seasonal",
        "horizon_days": 180
      },
      {
        "id": "annual",
        "horizon_days": 365
      }
    ],
    "baselines": [
      "climatology",
      "simple_ARIMA",
      "persistence"
    ]
  },
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "a2342ca2-30dd-4959-86cb-33668d315b03",
      "model": "Ceasar1",
      "domain": "climate/hurricanes",
      "statement": "Named Atlantic storms in 2026 season \u2265 18 (June 1\u2013Nov 30, 2026).",
      "probability": 0.0,
      "confidence_notes": "",
      "issue_time_utc": "2025-08-12T05:27:43Z",
      "valid_window_utc": {
        "start": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
        "end": "2026-11-30T23:59:59Z"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "metric": "binary",
        "source": "NOAA"
      },
      "status": "draft"
    },
    {
      "id": "53d980f6-0302-4a9b-8b9f-722244f3c5d5",
      "model": "Ceasar7",
      "domain": "space/solar",
      "statement": "Monthly Ap geomagnetic index will exceed 80 in at least one 7\u2011day window during Q1 2026.",
      "probability": 0.0,
      "confidence_notes": "",
      "issue_time_utc": "2025-08-12T05:27:43Z",
      "valid_window_utc": {
        "start": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
        "end": "2026-03-31T23:59:59Z"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "metric": "binary",
        "source": "NOAA SWPC"
      },
      "status": "draft"
    },
    {
      "id": "22bbab10-6eee-4297-9b14-80de3c9afe4b",
      "model": "Ceasar7Speed",
      "domain": "systems/performance",
      "statement": "On a 12\u2011core CPU, C7Speed reduces FFmpeg 1080p transcode wall\u2011time by \u2265 12% vs C7 Lite (median of 5 runs).",
      "probability": null,
      "effect_size_expectation_pct": 12,
      "issue_time_utc": "2025-08-12T05:27:43Z",
      "valid_window_utc": {
        "start": "2025-08-11T00:00:00Z",
        "end": "2026-08-11T23:59:59Z"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "metric": "effect_size",
        "source": "internal_bench_harness"
      },
      "status": "draft"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "notes": [
      "File to be CID\u2011pinned after finalizing probabilities.",
      "Once probabilities are set and file is hashed, treat as read\u2011only for evaluation."
    ]
  },
  "license": "All rights reserved unless otherwise licensed."
}